No.0128：EBPM - Because

July 30,2024

The title is an acronym for "Evidence Based Policy Making". It means that we should promote policies based on evidence, not on conventional wisdom or strange assumptions. Some time ago, the following was written in a newspaper. The Japanese economy is not only not expected to grow significantly in the future, but there are concerns that the population, which has a major impact on the size of the economy, will shrink significantly. Therefore, financial resources to support social life will become correspondingly scarce. Under these circumstances, it will be even more necessary in the future to make effective use of precious financial resources, which are in short supply, by properly judging and verifying them on the basis of the information available, without being dependent on the intentions of influential local politicians, profit returns to specific companies or ad hoc decisions by policy makers, which are regrettable.
 
When I have the opportunity to work with conservative organisations, I am often filled with a sense of doom and gloom about precedents, obsession with the status quo, obedience to authority, and the like. The environment that was the premise for the way things used to work has already changed. So new ways of adapting are essential. But in pushing ahead with this, there is often a change of protagonists, or to put it more bluntly, a shift of power. Those who were active in the old way of doing things are kicked out and the spotlight shines on those who have adapted quickly to the new way. That would be a terrible thing, so a very limited section of the people would cling to the old way of doing things without regard to the evidence, and undermine the value of the whole. Like Kodak, which was forced to exit the market because of its obsession with film photography, while the market erosion of digital cameras was gaining momentum.
 
The following are examples of ineffective quality control. When new problems arise in work, new preventive measures are added to the work manual. For example, for problems caused by inadequate checks, checks must be carried out by two persons, the results of the checks must be documented in detail and approved by the section head and manager. The document must be kept for five years. Such rules are added day by day. Because of this, the field staff are required to do their best every day to comply with the rules that accumulate one after another. In such a situation, there is no time or energy left to think of positive and exciting proposals. Of course, if the problem is so critical that it stops the operation of the plant, there is a sense of satisfaction at the level of response, but something very minor, such as excessive criticism of the somewhat thicker shredded carrot salad that accompanies the hamburger lunch in the company cafeteria, is likely to cause employees to be maximum demotivation.
 
Excessive strictness towards triviality destroys sound operation.
 
The birthrate is falling, which has even been referred to as a national crisis. Until recently, there was much talk about the need to provide nursery schools and other facilities to support working parents. Efforts have been made to increase the number of nurseries and childcare staff with the aim of eliminating the number of children waiting for admission, but it is said that these days there are many vacancies in some places. The target number of children to be accepted is far from the actual situation and is excessive, resulting in a surplus of facilities and personnel. The birth rate might increase if the extra money were used to reduce tuition fees at universities, for example. Excessive measures taken in response to a misperception of the current situation. Like the sorry state of information systems that are almost never used because the system vendor's wishes are given priority and the voices of the field are disregarded.
 
As mentioned above, accurate information is essential in order to properly assess the current situation and take appropriate action. In the past, it was said that statistics from authoritarian states that were not part of a democracy could not be relied upon because they were manipulated like a pencil licking for the convenience of the state. However, even here in Japan, the revelation that statistics have been manipulated to make economic conditions look better than they actually are has sent shockwaves through the country. There were fears that because economic measures were implemented based on manipulated statistics, measures that did not match the current situation would be implemented and the money spent would not produce effective results. Like the mild, almost ineffective and misguided treatment given to stage 3 cancer patients.
 
There has been a recent surge in the number of outside directors as part of governance reform. In the beginning, what would other people know about our company? Such scepticism towards outside directors was strong. However, a series of selfish errors of judgement based on the entrenched common sense of the old men who have been raising the tagline have occurred, and as a result, the idea has become dominant that it is dangerous to not curb such unfortunate misunderstandings in advance through discussions among people with diverse backgrounds. In such a situation, it seems that there are many outside directors who are serving concurrently in a number of companies, are favourites of the representative, such that they have been reduced to decoration. I would like to be in a place where not who is right, but what is right is valued. I believe that there is not much potential left in the future for those who only follow the will of the winning horse, with little regard for information or even their own wishes.