No.0135：Backcasting

February 28,2025

A recent newspaper article was critical of business plans drawn up by companies, which often end up with boring targets such as a 10% increase in operating profit compared to the previous year. This makes it difficult to take concrete action to achieve the targets, and furthermore, it is difficult to motivate employees. The article emphasised the importance of setting an aspirational future state and calculating backwards from there to create a coherent storyline for realising it. Such is what is meant by the title Backcast.
 
For example, the closure of the railway line that serves as the local transport system in our beloved hometown is imminent due to a sharp decline in the number of users. Furthermore, there is an overwhelming shortage of taxi drivers. In this context, there are concerns that the elderly in particular will be deprived of means of transport, and will lack the means to go to hospital and shop. In order to address the above issues, we would like to run self-driving buses in depopulated areas in three years by utilising artificial intelligence technology, which is one of our strengths.What must we do now to realise it? For example, we could raise money by explaining the social significance of the project to investors and getting their support, and then use the money to stimulate research and development. In parallel, we could also look for major car manufacturers to collaborate with, and call around to them from one side to the other.
 
As another example, a young, rugged engineer, who is frustrated by the current situation in which the workplace is controlled by a loud, bossy, populist old man who is all about mounting, is working feverishly to regain control of the company's internal politics.Utilising the time created by distancing ourselves as much as possible from the wastefulness of the frequently convened, peer-pressured regular meetings, drinking sessions and golf competitions, we are desperate to work in a direction and field with high potential that such an old man has gone through and doesn't realise the value of. In this way, we will increase our competence and outperform the old man in terms of results. As a result, it would be nice to have a strong bargaining power against ultra-conservative organisations that are no longer necessarily required to stay in place.

I have been working hard to achieve smooth communication in English in order to gain such negotiation skills. However, these daily efforts are not fun and are often painful. But by making it my own, I can exchange opinions with excellent engineers from all over the world on an equal footing and expand my own potential. I also receive a salary level that is more than double that of Japan, and I receive my remuneration in the strongest currency, the US dollar. Furthermore, I will be able to enjoy my favourite Hemingway novels in their original language. These are exciting things to think about. English is only a tool. Thinking about the benefits of using it turns the tedious continuation of daily effort into something exciting.
 
In the book '7 Habits Of Highly Effective People', it said something like, imagine your own funeral and think about how you will interact with your surroundings in the future. ‘Finally, you're dead!’ You don't want people to think so, do you? You want to be missed a bit, don't you? Then you know the attitude you should take towards the people around you from now on, don't you? After turning 50, I feel that my death is becoming more and more realistic. Nowadays, I often think about what happens after my death. It would be arrogant to ask those who remain behind to do what I want after I am gone. At least, I hope that I can leave behind a relationship with them through the time I have left so that they can naturally accept my thoughts and feelings.